SHFE Copper Bottoms Out and Rebounds to New Highs, Aluminum Stabilizes in Short Term [Institutional Comments]

[FUTURES MARKET] SHFE copper fluctuated lower during the night session, with the most-traded contract rebounding near 80,000 yuan support, and continued to rebound during the day session, reaching a new high in the afternoon. The most-traded May contract closed at 81,840, up 0.88%, with total trading volume slightly down and open interest increasing by over 8,000 lots. SHFE aluminum was quiet, with the most-traded May contract closing at 20,750, down 0.22%. Meanwhile, alumina for May closed at 3,072, up 1.76%.

[ANALYSIS] A stronger stock market and weaker US dollar in the afternoon supported higher copper prices. Attention is on whether copper smelters cut production or undergo maintenance as copper concentrate TCs remain negative and hit record lows, maintaining a positive outlook. Aluminum is influenced by both copper and alumina, with attention on the 20,500-21,000 range.

[VALUATION] Copper: moderately high; Aluminum: neutral

[RISK] Macro policies below expectations

(Source: China Fortune Futures)